Orange County Register

Two new surveys find business executives’ confidence on the rise. The catch is that it’s up from low points unseen in decades.

Despite the glass-half-full conclusion of the two reports, the Conference Board says  that consumer confidence in April is at the highest level since November. The closely watched index rose 12 points to 39.2. Economists had expected it to be 29.5.

First is the Discover Small Business Watch, which reports that small-business owners are more confident in April than they have been in 14 months.

The monthly index rose 10 points to 88.5, the third straight month that economic confidence rose.

However, just 31% say the economy is getting better. The only reason that’s positive is because only 16% saw economic improvement in March.

And 51% still say the economy is getting worse, compared to 69% in February.

Other findings:

• 32% see economic conditions improving for their own businesses
• 58% says they have not experienced cash flow problems in the previous 90 days
• 21% plan to increase spending and 46% are still cutting back

“While we saw confidence rise almost across the board, small-business owners who have been openless than two years showed the most enthusiasm for the economy that we’ve seen in that category since June 2007,” said Ryan Scully, director of Discover’s business credit card.

The other report — Leadership Pulse — found confidence of 660 U.S. business business leaders on the rise.

The quarterly survey is conducted by Professor Theresa Welbourne at the USC Marshall School of Business in partnership with the USC Center for Effective Organiztions, the Conference Board and eePulse.

“While they remain negative about the economic outlook, senior managers are becoming more poistive about the ability of their organizations to cope with a world that has changed,” Welbourne said. “From 2003 to 2007, our data showed leaders’ confidence in their organizations slowly declining.”

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Often consumer and business confidence seems fickle at best and irrational at worst. Jerome Idaszak at KiplingerBusinessResourceCenter recently had a good piece in March about what indicators will herald a real recovery.  Among the factors to watch:

• Rising stock market
• Private equity groups will team with Treasury to get toxic assets off banks’ books
• Investors will test the equity waters

Other economy stories…

• Early foreclosure filings spike across O.C.
• Free pink Angels tote bag for Mother’s Day
• Autobytel board urges rejection of buyout offer
• Give food, get a discount on oil change
• Chick’s to become Dick’s. Seriously.
• Lakers, Jack in the Box taco deal
• Today only: Half off at Newport day spa
• Want a $100-an-hour part-time job?
• Check out “5 for $5″ at Padres games

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