Orange County Register

Just when you thought business owners’ confidence couldn’t get lower, it hits a new low, according to two separate surveys.

The National Federation of Independent Business says owners confidence in October was the lowest in 28 years and sales were the lowest in the group’s 35-year history of surveying small-business owners.

And Discover business credit card says its Small Business Watch found a 3.9 point drop in optimism in November, the lowest since the survey started in August, 2006.

Although not unexpected, this is not good news for economy watchers because businesses with fewer than 100 employees account for about 95% of Orange County’s employers. They are the canary in the mine shaft for the economy’s condition and trend.

“The economy is solidly lodged in recessionary mire,” said William Dunkelberg, NFIB’s chief economist.

Ryan Scully, director of Discover’s business credit card added, “Small businesses are continuing to feel pressure in this weakening economy. The number of owners having trouble paying their bills is the highest we’ve seen since April, and more than half of owners are cutting back on their business development plans, which is an all-time high.”

Other Discover Small Business Watch findings:

• 44% of small-business owners have experienced cash flow issues in the last 90 days, up from 38% in October.
• 51% plan to decrease spending on business development over the next six months, compared to 42% in October.
• 65% rate the economy as poor; 5% rate it excellent or good. That the lowest rating in the survey’s history.
• 54% said economic conditions for their businesses are worsening, up 1 point from October. 15% said conditions are improving.
• 72% said the U.S. economy is getting worse, compared to 74% in October.

Discover also wanted to know how small-business owners size up the coming Christmas shopping season. Obviously credit card companies care a lot about this issue.

This doesn’t look good either:

• 40% expect to do less business this holiday season than in 2007. 47% expect to do about the same; 9% expect more business and 4% aren’t sure.
• By comparison, the last time Discover asked the question, 2006, 20% said they’d do less business, 55% said about the same and 23% said more.

Small businesses and the economy…

• Daily tip: Avoid cutting employee perks
• Poll: How is your company coping with economic downturn?
• UPDATE: Oh no! 9.25% sales tax on some service businesses
• O.C. yearlong job loss second highest in U.S.
• 90% of U.S. banks tighten small-business credit
• September O.C. bankruptcies hit 3-year high

More O.C. economic news…

• Gov. Arnold wants bailout at fastest pace
• Sanchez doesn’t want to give Treasury a “blank check”
• O.C. property stocks hammered
• Rohrabacher not keen on bailout
• Campbell on board on bailout plan
• The McCain-Cox dustup: Taking sides
• Crisis fix recap: O.C. S&L stock doubles
• O.C. gov’t profiting from Wall Street crisis
• Pimco wants to manage gov’t-seized assets
• Meltdown recovery? It’s all about housing

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