Orange County Register

Employment cuts across the nation have been so high this summer that the yearly total of announced job reductions could exceed 1 million for the first time in three years, predicts outplacement expert Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc.

The company has tracked corporate downsizing announcements for 15 years. While its numbers are national, there are local parallels.

In July, 93,500 Orange Countians were out of work, according to the Employment Development Department, as the local unemployment rate jumped to 5.7% from 5.3% in June and the highest rate in 13 years.

Colleague Mary Ann Milbourn points out that two out of three local job losses in the past year have been real estate related. Click here to read her post.

National job cuts have been higher each month than the same month in 2007. In July, companies announced their intention to wipe out more than 103,000 jobs, almost one-and-a-half times the announced cuts a year earlier.

Remember, these cuts are those companies announce. They might change their minds later, or take an every bigger whack at payrolls. Keep an eye on economic and inflation trends.

Summer is usually a slow period for job cuts, Challenger Gray says, so the fact that June-July cuts have been so heavy doesn’t bode well for the rest of 2008. Companies often get out the saws as they try to meet year-end profit goals and prepare the next year’s staffing budgets.

Here is Challenger Gray’s numbers for summer announced job cuts back to the technology crash of 2001:

“Through the first quarter, job cuts remained relatively stable, averaging just short of 67,000 per month,” said John A. Challenger, the firm’s chief executive. “However, it was only a matter of time before the job market began to buckle under the pressure of the housing market collapse, the banking crisis and high oil prices.”

Don’t expect hiring turnarounds until at least second quarter of 2009, Challenger warns.

A CFO magazine/Duke University survey of corporate money guys found 71% expecting the economy to turn around in 2009, and 59% of then guessing improvement after June.

“We do not expect downsizing to let up in the last four mnths of the year,” Challenger adds. ” The financial sector continues to show signs of weakness. A collapse of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae could set off another round of massive financial sector layoffs.”

Other Challenger Gray predictions:

• The airlines, which have already eliminated 36,000 jobs this year, will cut more workers after Labor Day to offset soaring fuel costs
• Retailers are looking at forecasts of weak holiday sales, so they may hire fewer people in October and November and/or lay off more than usual in January and February
• Automakers will cut more jobs in the last four months of the year because of slower sales.
• Another 400,000 to 495,000 jobs will be eliminated by the end of the year.

“If you suspect that your job is at risk,” Challenger advises workers, “take responsibility for your future. Take action to improve your standing within the company.”

Challenger Gray’s suggestions:

• Align your goals with company goals.
• Volunteer for tough tasks and exhibit a take-charge attitude.
• Be visible. Arrive early and stay late to demonstrate your dedication to getting the job done.
• Find ways to increase efficiency and performance while decreasing costs for your employer.

OTHER STORIES;

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